内容来源：https://www.wired.com/story/no-company-has-admitted-to-replacing-workers-with-ai-in-new-york/

内容总结：

纽约州强制企业上报裁员原因，人工智能选项至今“零勾选”

自去年3月以来，纽约州已有超过160家公司提交了大规模裁员通知，其中包括亚马逊、高盛等正在积极应用人工智能技术的企业。然而，在必须向州政府提交的《工人调整与再培训通知》（WARN）文件中，没有任何一家公司将裁员原因归咎于“技术创新或自动化”。

这一选项是11个月前新增的。纽约州劳工部向媒体证实，截至今年1月底，尚无任何雇主在裁员原因中勾选技术因素。过去几年，许多公司曾公开表示将客服、销售、会计等重复性工作交由AI处理，但直接将裁员归因于AI可能损害企业声誉。经济学家也指出，技术进步与裁员之间的因果关系难以精确追溯，因为企业围绕新工作方式完成重组可能需要数十年。

为此，纽约州州长凯西·霍楚下令劳工部在WARN文件中增加AI相关选项，旨在更准确把握现实情况。法律专家称，纽约由此成为全美首个要求企业明确报告AI是否导致裁员的州。

根据规定，拥有50名以上员工的公司在计划大规模裁员前，必须提交WARN文件，并从包括“破产”、“并购”、“搬迁”等在内的17个选项中勾选裁员原因。如果选择“技术与自动化”，则需进一步说明具体技术类型，如人工智能、机器人或“软件现代化”。

自该选项推出以来，全州162家雇主提交的超过750份裁员通知（涉及近2.83万名员工）中，无一例将AI列为原因。这一结果可能表明企业有意回避AI问题，也可能意味着目前裁员仍主要由传统因素驱动，员工无需过度担忧被AI取代。

提交通知的企业包括餐饮服务和零售商，这些行业的岗位尚未被广泛认为可由AI替代。另一方面，根据纽约州记录，高盛以裁员或关闭办公点影响超过4100名员工位居前列，亚马逊（影响660人）和摩根士丹利（影响260人）也位列前十。这三家公司均公开表示正在应用AI技术。

值得注意的是，企业内部表态与官方文件存在差异。高盛曾在内部将去年裁员与AI可能带来的生产力提升相联系；亚马逊在最近几轮总计影响约3万人的裁员前曾警告，AI带来的效益将导致岗位减少；另有消息称摩根士丹利的小部分裁员反映了AI与自动化的应用。由于这些公司业务遍布全球，AI导致的裁员可能发生在纽约州以外。

一家求职公司的分析显示，去年全美有近5.5万家公司将裁员归因于采用AI。然而，纽约州的独特数据并未反映出这一趋势，这再次凸显了回答“AI是否会取代我的工作？”这一问题的复杂性。

亚马逊发言人凯利·南特尔表示，裁员“绝大多数与AI无关”，主要目的是“减少层级、强化责任归属、降低官僚主义”。高盛拒绝置评，摩根士丹利未回应询问。

数据准确性受核查，立法者寻求更严规管

WARN文件旨在让州政府机构提前准备，帮助失业者尽快找到新工作。未按规定提交的公司将面临每日500美元的罚款。州长发言人克里斯汀·德沃表示，劳工部会跟进每一家雇主以确保信息准确。以亚马逊为例，该公司向部门解释称，裁员是由于疫情期间为应对线上购物激增而雇佣的员工不再被需要。

德沃强调，雇主如实回答WARN文件中的问题至关重要，这有助于州政府最大限度地支持失业工人。纽约州最大的工会组织之一赞扬了霍楚州长收集AI相关裁员数据的努力，并呼吁制定更具体的法规，强制雇主在AI部署中保持问责与透明。

上月，州议会劳工委员会主席哈里·布朗森提交了两项法案，旨在扩大对AI导致失业情况的报告范围。其中一项要求员工超百人的企业每年向州政府报告因AI应用而空缺的职位数量，以及员工工时受AI影响的变化情况。另一项法案则类似WARN程序，但适用范围更广，未能按规定报告的公司可能失去获得州政府补助和税收优惠的资格。

康奈尔大学劳动经济学家埃丽卡·格罗申指出，雇主在回答新技术影响的问题时将面临困难。她认为，更有效的要求可能是让企业向劳工机构提供关于技能与职业演变的详细数据。“关键在于，”她提出，“立法者应提供必要信息，帮助人们顺利完成职业转型。”

中文翻译：

自去年三月以来，纽约州已有超过160家公司提交了大规模裁员通知。在这批包括亚马逊、高盛及其他正在采用人工智能工具的企业中，没有任何一家在申报文件中将裁员归因于"技术创新或自动化"。

11个月前，纽约州在强制申报表格中增设了该选项。根据规定，拥有50名及以上员工的企业若计划大规模裁员，必须向州政府提交包含该问题的文件。纽约州劳工部向《连线》杂志透露，截至1月底，尚未有雇主将技术因素标记为裁员原因。

过去几年间，许多企业热衷于将客服、销售、会计等重复性工作交由人工智能系统处理。但若公开宣称以AI代理或机器人取代人力，可能面临声誉受损的风险。经济学家在追溯技术进步与裁员的关联时也面临挑战，因为企业围绕新工作方式完成全面重组可能需要数十年时间。

纽约州州长凯西·霍楚为此采取了行动。为更准确把握现状，她下令劳工部开始调查人工智能是否成为裁员的推动因素。法律专家指出，纽约由此成为全美首个增设人工智能选项的州。

在《工人调整与再培训通知》（WARN）强制申报中，纽约企业可从包含"破产""并购""搬迁""其他"等共17个选项的多选列表中勾选裁员原因。若有公司选择技术与自动化选项，则需额外说明具体替代人力工作的技术类型，例如人工智能、机器人或"软件现代化"。

自该政策实施以来，162家雇主提交的750余份裁员通知涉及近2.83万名员工，但无一涉及人工智能。这一现象可能表明企业正在回避人工智能相关问题，亦可能暗示当前劳动者需要担忧的仍是传统裁员动因，而非新兴技术。

部分申报企业如餐饮服务商和零售商，其员工岗位尚未与现有AI替代技术广泛关联。而根据纽约州记录，高盛以裁员或办公点关闭影响超4100名员工位居榜首。亚马逊以660名受影响员工位列前十，另一家人工智能应用企业摩根士丹利报告裁员260人。

值得注意的是，高盛在内部将去年裁员与人工智能释放巨大生产潜力的前景相关联。亚马逊在最新几轮累计影响约3万名员工的裁员前曾预警，人工智能带来的效益将导致岗位削减。匿名消息人士向彭博社透露，摩根士丹利少量裁员确实反映了人工智能与自动化的应用。由于这些企业业务遍布全球，被人工智能取代的岗位可能仅涉及纽约州以外的员工。

根据求职公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas对公开声明的分析，去年全美近5.5万家企业将裁员归因于人工智能应用。然而，这些动态均未体现在纽约州的独特数据中，这加剧了回答"人工智能是否会取代我的工作"这一普遍疑问的难度。

亚马逊发言人凯利·南特尔表示："绝大多数裁员与人工智能无关"，公司目标是"减少层级、强化责任制、简化管理流程"。高盛拒绝置评，摩根士丹利未回应采访请求。

数据核查机制

WARN申报旨在让州政府机构提前掌握裁员动态，以便及时加强就业服务。企业若未遵守申报规定，将面临每日500美元的罚款。州长发言人克里斯汀·德沃表示，劳工部会对每家雇主进行跟踪核查以确保申报准确性。以亚马逊为例，该公司向劳工部解释称，疫情期间为应对线上购物激增而招募的员工已不再需要，因此将裁员原因标注为"经济因素"。

"通过WARN通知收集的数据（包括裁员原因）是研判劳动力市场变化的重要指标，"德沃指出，"掌握这些早期迹象有助于州政府识别就业趋势，并为需要再培训的劳动者提供技能提升支持，使其能力适应当前快速变化的经济环境。"她强调雇主如实回答WARN问题至关重要，这关系到纽约州能否最大限度为失业工人提供支持。

全美最大工会组织之一纽约州劳工联合会-产业工会联合会赞扬霍楚州长收集人工智能相关裁员数据的举措，认为制定额外规则并加强关注将有助于获取有效信息。该联合会主席马里奥·奇伦托表示："我们必须建立具体法规，强制雇主在人工智能部署中承担责任并保持透明度，同时确保其合规操作。"

上月，州议会劳工委员会主席哈里·布朗森提交了两项旨在扩大人工智能所致失业情况报告的法案。其一要求员工超百人的企业每年向州政府提交因人工智能应用导致的空缺岗位数量预估，以及受人工智能影响工时增减的员工人数。另一项法案将参照WARN程序，但适用范围扩展至更多将工作岗位转移给计算机的企业。值得注意的是，未按规定申报可能影响企业获得州政府补助与税收减免的资格——这将成为收集数据的新激励措施。

位于纽约州的康奈尔大学劳动经济学家埃丽卡·格罗申指出，雇主在回答新技术影响相关问题时将面临困难。她认为更合理的要求应是企业向劳工机构提供关于技能与职业演变的详细数据。"坦率地说，我们真正关心的究竟是人工智能导致的岗位替代，还是正常市场竞争的结果？"格罗申提出质疑。她建议立法者应当"为人们提供必要信息，以帮助他们顺利完成转型"。

英文来源：

Over 160 companies in New York state have filed notices of mass layoffs since last March. None—in a group that includes Amazon, Goldman Sachs, and other employers that are adopting AI tools—attributed their workforce cuts in those filings to “technological innovation or automation.”
That option was added 11 months ago to a required question on paperwork that businesses with 50 or more employees must file with the state to notify of sizable job losses. New York’s Department of Labor told WIRED that, as of the end of January, no employer had marked tech as the reason for their workforce reduction.
Over the past couple of years, many companies have celebrated offloading repetitive tasks such as customer service, sales, and accounting to AI systems. But saying that they are dumping human workers in favor of AI agents or robots can risk reputational harm. And economists face challenges tracing layoffs to tech advancements because companies can take decades to fully reorganize around new ways of working.
Enter New York governor Kathy Hochul. To get a better handle on the current reality, she ordered the Department of Labor to begin asking whether AI had been the impetus for layoffs. New York became the first state with an AI option, according to legal experts.
New York businesses can select multiple reasons among a list of 17 in total that also includes “bankruptcy,” “merger,” “relocation,” and “other,” on required Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification, or WARN, filings. If any company were to select the tech and automation option, they would receive an additional question asking them to specify the technology taking over work, such as AI, robotics, or “software modernization.”
Over 750 notices spanning 162 employers and affecting nearly 28,300 workers have followed the rollout without AI coming up. The results suggest that companies may be dodging the AI question. Or it’s a sign that workers need not yet fear anything more than the traditional drivers of layoffs.
Some of the filers include caterers and retailers whose staff haven’t widely been linked to capable AI replacements. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs led the way with more than 4,100 workers affected by layoffs or location closures, according to New York records. Amazon was among the top 10 with 660 affected workers. Morgan Stanley, another AI adopter, reported 260 workers out of job.
Internally, Goldman Sachs linked its layoffs last year to AI’s potential to unlock significant productivity gains. Amazon warned ahead of its latest waves of layoffs, which affected about 30,000 workers in total, that benefits from AI would lead to job cuts. An unnamed source told Bloomberg that a small portion of Morgan Stanley’s layoffs reflected AI and automation use. The companies operate around the world, so it’s possible that only employees outside of New York were pushed out in favor of AI.
Overall, nearly 55,000 US companies attributed job cuts to adoption of AI last year, according to an analysis of public statements by the job search firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Still, none of these developments showing up in the unique New York data reinforces the challenge with answering the question on everyone’s mind: “Is AI going to take my job?”
Amazon spokesperson Kelly Nantel says, “AI is not the reason behind the vast majority” of cuts and that instead the goal is “reducing layers, increasing ownership, and helping reduce bureaucracy.”
Goldman Sachs declined to comment. Morgan Stanley didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Accuracy Checks
WARN filings are intended to give state agencies advance notice of cuts, so that they can ramp up services to help people quickly find new jobs. Companies face $500 daily fines for noncompliance with filing requirements.
Kristin Devoe, a spokesperson for the governor, says the Department of Labor follows up with every employer to ensure the accuracy of filings. In the case of Amazon, for example, the company listed “economic” as the rationale for layoffs, according to Devoe. It explained to the department that employees hired during the pandemic to meet surges in online shopping were no longer needed.
“The data collected through WARN notices, including the reason for layoff, serves as a valuable indicator of shifts in the labor market,” Devoe says. “Gathering these early indicators allows the state to identify workforce trends and upskill workers who may need retraining to make their skills more compatible with today’s changing economy.”
She added that it is crucial for employers to answer “questions in WARN frankly and honestly so New York State can support displaced workers to the greatest extent possible.”
One of the country’s largest union groups, the New York State AFL-CIO, applauds Hochul for trying to capture data on AI-related layoffs. It suggests that additional rules and greater focus on the issue could help bring about meaningful information. “We must establish specific regulations that mandate employer accountability and transparency in AI deployment and ensure employers comply,” says Mario Cilento, the federation’s president.
Last month, state lawmaker Harry Bronson, who chairs the Assembly Labor Committee, introduced two bills that could expand reporting of AI-fueled job loss. One would require businesses with more than 100 employees to file annual estimates with the state on the number of unfilled roles as a result of increasing use of AI, and how many employees worked more or less hours because of AI.
The other bill would resemble WARN procedures but apply to a wider set of businesses handing over jobs to computers. Notably, failure to report could impair a company’s ability to get state grants and tax breaks—a new prod to gather data.
Erica Groshen, a labor economist at Cornell University, which is in New York, says employers will struggle with answering questions about the consequences of new tech. A better requirement, she says, would be for companies to share detailed data with labor agencies on the evolution of skills and occupations.
“Frankly, do we really care if someone is displaced by AI, or just the normal competitive marketplace?” Groshen asks. What lawmakers ought to do is “give people the information they need to make the right transitions.”