内容来源：https://aibusiness.com/generative-ai/anthropic-report-says-early-for-ai-to-affect-jobs

内容总结：

AI对就业影响究竟几何？最新报告揭示职场真实图景

近日，人工智能公司Anthropic发布的一项研究报告指出，尽管当前许多企业将裁员归咎于人工智能（AI）技术，但AI在职场中的实际影响力可能被高估，其尚未完全发挥潜力。

该报告于3月5日发布，引入了一项名为“实际暴露度”的评估指标，通过分析大型语言模型（如Anthropic自身的Claude）执行任务是否比人类快一倍、Claude在工作中的实际应用情况以及职位描述中对AI技能的要求这三类数据，来衡量AI对具体工作岗位的影响。

研究发现，AI在工作场所的实际应用程度低于普遍预期。自2022年以来，在年长专业人士、女性、高学历者及高薪员工等群体中，并未出现系统性失业率上升。然而，企业招聘年轻员工的数量有所减少，且计算机程序员、客服代表以及涉及写作、阅读和研究等可自动化任务的岗位，确实更容易受到AI技术的影响。

报告发布之际，正值就业市场波动，多家知名企业如Block、甲骨文、Pinterest、Salesforce和惠普等，均将裁员或业务重组归因于向AI转型。这加剧了从业者，尤其是程序员和工程师群体，对工作被AI取代的普遍焦虑。

对此，伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校数据科学与人工智能战略协理副校长迈克尔·贝内特指出，目前AI技术对劳动力市场的量化影响仍难准确评估。“一些雇主可能只是以‘AI替代人力’为由，来为其本将进行的裁员提供说辞。而另一些则确实在工作场所看到了人力过时的迹象并发出解雇通知。”

贝内特认为，Anthropic的“实际暴露度”指标有助于更细致地识别AI技术带来的职场变化，并鼓励开发更精准的评估方法。他强调，在AI时代开启尚不足四年之际，将裁员潮简单归咎于AI技术仍为时过早，其真实影响仍需更长时间和更深入的观察。

报告最后建议，企业若想启动生成式AI应用，应首先关注那些能够改善人类信息交互体验的领域。

中文翻译：

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如何选择首个生成式AI应用场景
要着手应用生成式AI，首先应关注能够提升人类信息交互体验的领域。

尽管年轻员工招聘数量减少，该供应商发现高暴露度岗位员工受到的影响微乎其微。当众多企业将裁员归咎于AI技术时，Anthropic公司推出了一项新指标，帮助企业评估AI的实际影响范围。

这家生成式AI供应商于3月5日发布的报告指出，AI技术在工作场所尚未充分发挥潜力。报告中采用"观察暴露度"指标分析三类数据源：其自有Claude等大语言模型执行任务的速度能否达到人类的两倍；Claude在实际工作场景中的应用情况；以及职位描述如何体现特定岗位的AI使用需求。通过岗位专项指标分析，Anthropic发现职场中的AI实际应用率低于预期。

Claude的创造者指出，自2022年以来，包括资深专业人士、女性、高学历者及高薪员工在内的群体并未出现系统性失业增长。然而年轻员工招聘量确实下降，且计算机程序员、客服代表等最易受AI影响的岗位，其文书处理、阅读研究等工作已能实现自动化。报告同时强调，人类仍未充分挖掘AI技术的潜力。

Anthropic的报告发布正值就业市场低迷时期——许多企业将裁员潮归因于AI技术。例如2月26日，Block公司CEO杰克·多西宣布为组建AI驱动团队将裁员4000人；甲骨文公司为履行AI数据中心债务承诺预计也将削减岗位；Pinterest、Salesforce、惠普等企业同样将大规模裁员及裁员计划归咎于AI。

现象背后的真相
这些动态加剧了就业市场中对大语言模型取代岗位的普遍焦虑。但Anthropic报告与部分专家的结论不谋而合：将裁员归咎于AI为时过早，该技术对就业的实际影响尚不明确。

"鉴于AI时代开启尚不足三年半，任何关于劳动力影响的量化指标都难以取信。"伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校数据科学与人工智能战略协理副校长迈克尔·贝内特指出，"部分雇主可能借AI取代人力的概念，为其既定的裁员决策提供依据。而另一些企业则确实察觉到岗位过时迹象并发出解聘通知。"

贝内特特别提到，裁员潮已引发程序员和工程师群体的强烈担忧，他们焦虑于AI如何改变编码工作。Anthropic的Claude Code和OpenAI的Codex等AI编码平台迅速普及，正对代码相关岗位构成威胁。

他认为Anthropic的"观察暴露度"指标有助于识别AI技术带来的职场变革："我们需要更精细化的衡量指标，这类指标将推动新评估方法的诞生。"

英文来源：

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The vendor found that highly exposed workers are seeing minimal effect, even as fewer younger workers are being hired.
With many companies blaming AI technology for slashing their workforce, Anthropic has introduced a new metric for enterprises to determine where AI is making an impact.
The generative AI vendor released the report on March 5, finding that AI technology has not yet reached its full potential in the workplace.
In the report, the vendor used an "Observed Exposure" metric to look at three data sources. They are whether a large language model (LLM) such as the vendor's Claude model can perform a task twice as fast as a human; how Claude is actually being used in work-related settings, and how job descriptions show AI’s use in specific roles. Using the specific role metric, Anthropic found that actual AI use in the workplace is lower than thought.
The Claude creator said there has been no systematic increase in unemployment among workers, such as older professionals, women, more educated individuals, and high-paid employees, since 2022. However, hiring of younger workers has decreased, and the job roles most exposed to AI, such as computer programmers, customer service representatives, and those for which writing, reading and research can be automated. At the same time, humans are still not using AI technology to its full potential, according to the report.
Anthropic's report comes amid an unfavorable job market, in which many companies are blaming layoffs on AI technology. For example, on Feb. 26, Block CEO Jack Dorsey said his company will lay off 4,000 employees to restructure around AI-driven teams. Oracle is also expected to cut jobs as it tries to fulfill its AI data center debt commitments. Other companies, including Pinterest, Salesforce, and HP, have blamed AI for wide-ranging layoffs and plans for layoffs.
What’s Really Going on
These events have affected a job market in which many feel dread that an LLM will snatch their jobs. However, the Anthropic report echoes what some experts have concluded: it's too early to blame AI for layoffs, since it's still unclear what effect the technology is having on jobs.
"Given that we're not quite three-and-a-half years into the AI era, it's difficult to trust any quantitative measure of impacts on labor," said Michael Bennett, associate vice chancellor for data science and artificial intelligence strategy at the University of Illinois Chicago.
"Some employers may be using the notion of AI displacement of human workers to help justify cuts they would've made anyway," Bennett continued. "While others are simultaneously seeing signs of actual obsolescence in their workplaces and handing out pink slips."
Regardless, the layoffs are causing particular concern among programmers and engineers who worry about how AI is changing the coding work they do, Bennett said. AI coding platforms such as Anthropic's Claude Code and OpenAI's Codex have rapidly become popular and are seen as threatening coding-based jobs.
He added that Anthropic's Observed Exposure metric is useful for identifying changes AI technology is making in the workplace.
"We need more and more nuanced metrics," he said. "This one will likely encourage the development of new approaches."