内容来源：https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/31/investors-predict-ai-is-coming-for-labor-in-2026/

内容总结：

随着人工智能技术飞速发展，其引发的就业冲击正日益成为现实隐忧。近期多项研究及行业调查显示，AI对劳动力市场的重塑已从预测走向实践。

麻省理工学院11月发布的研究指出，目前已有约11.7%的工作岗位可通过现有AI技术实现自动化。多家企业已开始因引入AI而削减基础岗位，并将裁员原因直接归咎于技术升级。风险投资机构的调研进一步印证了这一趋势：多位专注于企业服务领域的投资人预测，2026年将成为AI冲击就业市场的关键节点。

风险基金Hustle Fund联合创始人埃里克·巴恩表示：“重复性工作乃至需要逻辑判断的复杂岗位都将面临自动化改造。这究竟会引发大规模裁员，还是提升整体生产率，抑或成为现有劳动力的增效工具，目前尚无定论，但2026年必将迎来重大变革。”

资本流向的变化同样值得关注。Exceptional Capital创始合伙人马雷尔·埃文斯指出，企业正在将原本用于人力资源的预算转向AI投资，“随着AI预算的增量增长，劳动力削减将持续冲击美国就业率”。蓝宝石风投董事总经理拉吉夫·达姆与Battery Ventures投资人都观察到，2026年企业资源将从人力端系统性向AI转移，届时AI将超越辅助工具范畴，直接实现工作流程的自动化替代。

值得注意的是，部分业内人士指出AI可能成为企业缩减成本的“替罪羊”。Black Operator Ventures合伙人安东尼娅·迪恩分析称：“无论是否真正部署AI方案，许多企业都可能以‘加大AI投入’为由，解释其削减人力成本的行为。实际上AI常成为管理层掩盖过往决策失误的借口。”

尽管AI公司多强调其技术旨在将人力解放至更具创造性的“深度工作”，但从业者的焦虑并未消减。投资人们普遍认为，这种担忧在2026年或将随着技术落地进一步加剧。在效率革命与就业稳定的天平上，技术浪潮带来的震荡才刚刚开始。

中文翻译：

随着人工智能技术的飞速发展和各类自动化增效新产品的涌现，人们对AI如何影响就业的担忧正同步加剧。现有证据表明这种担忧并非杞人忧天。

麻省理工学院去年11月的研究显示，目前约有11.7%的工作岗位已可通过AI实现自动化。多项调查证实，部分企业因这项技术开始削减基础岗位，更有公司直接将裁员归咎于人工智能的应用。随着企业更实质性地采用AI技术，部分雇主或将重新审视实际所需的人力规模。

在TechCrunch近期调研中，多位企业创投机构负责人不约而同地预测：2026年AI将对企业劳动力市场产生重大冲击。这一共识的特别之处在于，调研并未专门就此议题设问。

Hustle Fund联合创始人兼普通合伙人埃里克·巴恩预计2026年将出现劳动力市场震荡，但其具体形态尚不明朗。"我期待看到重复性岗位实现自动化，甚至需要逻辑判断的复杂岗位也加速自动化进程。"巴恩表示，"这会导致更大规模裁员吗？生产力会因此提升吗？抑或AI只是增强现有劳动力效能？这些问题尚无定论，但2026年必将发生重大变革。"

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Exceptional Capital创始人兼管理合伙人马雷尔·埃文斯预言，企业增加AI预算的同时必将压缩人力成本。"随着AI预算的递增，我们将目睹人力岗位的削减，裁员潮将持续冲击美国就业率。"

Sapphire董事总经理拉吉夫·达姆认同2026年企业预算将向AI倾斜的观点。Battery Ventures风险投资人杰森·门德尔补充道："2026年AI将超越单纯提升效率的工具属性，软件将从辅助人类转向直接替代人力，在某些领域真正实现劳动力替代价值。"

Black Operator Ventures合伙人安东尼娅·迪恩指出，即便企业未将人力预算转向AI项目，仍可能以AI为托词进行裁员。"复杂之处在于，无论企业是否具备应用AI的条件，都会以'加大AI投资'为由解释削减开支或裁员的决策。实际上，AI正成为管理层掩盖过往失误的替罪羊。"

尽管众多AI公司宣称其技术旨在将劳动者转向"深度工作"或高技能岗位，仅替代重复性"事务工作"，但并非所有人都认同这种说法。从业者对岗位被自动化取代的忧虑持续蔓延。根据该领域投资人的判断，2026年这些担忧恐难平息。

英文来源：

Concerns about how AI will affect workers continue to rise in lockstep with the pace of advancements and new products promising automation and efficiency.
Evidence suggests that fear is warranted.
A November MIT study found an estimated 11.7% of jobs could already be automated using AI. Surveys have shown employers are already eliminating entry-level jobs because of the technology. Companies are also already pointing to AI as the reason for layoffs.
As enterprises more meaningfully adopt AI, some may take a closer look at how many employees they really need.
In a recent TechCrunch survey, multiple enterprise VCs said AI will have a big impact on the enterprise workforce in 2026. This was particularly interesting because the survey didn’t specifically ask about it.
Eric Bahn, a co-founder and general partner at Hustle Fund, expects to see affects on labor in 2026. He’s just not sure exactly what that will look like.
“I want to see what roles that have been known for more repetition get automated, or even more complicated roles with more logic become more automated,” Bahn said. “Is it going to lead to more layoffs? Is there going to be higher productivity? Or will AI just be an augmentation for the existing labor market to be even more productive in the future? All of this seems pretty unanswered, but it seems like something big is going to happen in 2026.”
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Add yourself to the Disrupt 2026 waitlist to be first in line when Early Bird tickets drop. Past Disrupts have brought Google Cloud, Netflix, Microsoft, Box, Phia, a16z, ElevenLabs, Wayve, Hugging Face, Elad Gil, and Vinod Khosla to the stages — part of 250+ industry leaders driving 200+ sessions built to fuel your growth and sharpen your edge. Plus, meet the hundreds of startups innovating across every sector.
Marell Evans, founder and managing partner at Exceptional Capital, predicted companies looking to increase AI spending, will pull money from their pool for labor and hiring.
“I think on the flip side of seeing an incremental increase in AI budgets, we’ll see more human labor get cut and layoffs will continue to aggressively impact the U.S. employment rate,” Evans said.
Rajeev Dham, managing director at Sapphire, agreed that 2026 budgets will start to shift resources from labor to AI. Jason Mendel, a venture investor at Battery Ventures, added that AI will start to surpass just being a tool to make existing workers more efficient in 2026.
“2026 will be the year of agents as software expands from making humans more productive to automating work itself, delivering on the human-labor displacement value proposition in some areas,” Mendel said.
Antonia Dean, a partner at Black Operator Ventures, said even if companies aren’t shifting labor budgets toward AI projects, they will likely still say AI is the reason for layoffs or a reduction in labor costs anyway.
“The complexity here is that many enterprises, despite how ready or not they are to successfully use AI solutions, will say that they are increasing their investments in AI to explain why they are cutting back spending in other areas or trimming workforces,” Dean said. “In reality, AI will become the scapegoat for executives looking to cover for past mistakes.”
Many AI companies argue their technology doesn’t eliminate jobs but rather helps shift workers to “deep work” or to higher-skilled jobs while AI just automates repetitive “busy work.”
But not everyone buys that argument, and people are worried that their jobs will be automated. According to VCs who invest in that area, it doesn’t sound like those fears will be quelled in 2026.