内容来源：https://lifehacker.com/entertainment/what-people-are-getting-wrong-this-week-did-80-children-go-missing-in-virginia?utm_medium=RSS

内容总结：

【美国弗吉尼亚州儿童失踪谣言调查：社交媒体恐慌与事实真相】

近日，TikTok等社交媒体平台广泛传播"弗吉尼亚州一周内超百名儿童遭绑架"的惊人消息，相关视频浏览量累计破千万。用户@tkay7411发布系列视频称失踪人数从50人激增至超100人，并将矛头指向"午夜冰淇淋车"的拐卖阴谋，引发民众对政府隐瞒真相的质疑。

事实核查显示：8月3日至9日期间，弗吉尼亚州确实报告88名儿童失踪，但该数字实际低于该州周均98起的平均水平。据全美失踪与被剥削儿童中心（NCMEC）数据，93%的失踪案例为离家出走的青少年，其中99%最终安全返回。真正遭遇陌生人绑架的案件不足1%——全美每年仅约350起，且案发后两小时内所有案件均依法上报国家数据库。

警方未发布安珀警报的原因为：这些案件均不符合"确认遭绑架、存在迫在眉睫危险且掌握具体线索"的法定启动标准。弗吉尼亚州880万人口中，今年迄今报告的3274起失踪案中仍有141人未寻获，占比4%，与历年水平持平。

这场恐慌折射出公众对机构的不信任及社交媒体算法对耸动内容的推波助澜。与上世纪80年代"陌生人危险"恐慌浪潮相似，当前谣言同样将真实的社会焦虑（家庭矛盾、青少年心理健康）转化为虚构的阴谋叙事。真正需要关注的是离家出走青少年面临的现实风险：流落街头、暴力侵害与性剥削，而非虚构的"官方贩运团伙"。

（注：文中所有数据援引自弗吉尼亚州警局、NCMEC及联邦调查局公开记录）

中文翻译：

上周，社交媒体上开始流传令人不安的报道，称弗吉尼亚州儿童失踪事件激增。相关视频和帖文宣称该州在短短数日内就有数十名儿童失踪，从Instagram到X再到Threads等平台，这些内容迅速累计获得数千万浏览量。

8月12日，TikTok用户@tkay7411称弗吉尼亚州有50名儿童失踪。到8月13日，这个数字升至80人。次日，失踪人数骤增至超过100人。此时一个"罪魁祸首"开始浮出水面——"午夜冰淇淋车"。

众多网络业余侦探以官方未发布安珀警报及主流媒体失声为据，声称这证明绑架行为获得了当局默许。当有关部门召开新闻发布会澄清谣言时，网络舆论普遍反应是："欲盖弥彰的说辞罢了"。

让我们剖析这场集体恐慌，辨别其中的真伪。

弗吉尼亚州究竟有多少儿童失踪？
这并非完全凭空捏造的阴谋论。据国家失踪与被剥削儿童中心（NCMEC）数据，8月3日至9日期间，弗吉尼亚州确实接到88起儿童失踪报案。该州在NCMEC官网登记的失踪儿童数量位居全国之首，期间也确实未发布安珀警报，主流媒体也未曾报道。

但真相往往平淡无奇——根本没有午夜冰淇淋车的身影。每周88名儿童失踪的实际数字其实低于该州每周98人的平均水平，但这个数据本身仍极具误导性。弗吉尼亚州警方解释，该州之所以报案数偏高，是因为规定所有失踪儿童案件都必须在接报后两小时内上传至NCMEC系统。

更重要的是"失踪"的定义。当人们听到"失踪儿童"时，总会立即联想到"被陌生人绑架"，但事实上93%的失踪案例都是离家出走的青少年，其中绝大多数都会很快被寻回或自行返家。根据美国寻童组织数据，99%的离家者最终都会回归家庭。因此当青少年周六夜未归宿，焦虑的父母报警后，案件在当事人凌晨六点跌撞回家前就已录入NCMEC系统。

在真正遭绑架的7%案例中，78%是被非监护权父母带走，21%被其他亲属带走，27%被熟人带走。总体而言，陌生人实施的绑架案占比不足1%。FBI数据显示，在全美3.4亿人口中，每年仅约350名儿童遭遇陌生人绑架。这个数字虽非零，但已无限接近。

拥有880万人口的弗吉尼亚州自1月25日以来累计报告3274起儿童失踪案，截至8月13日仍有141人未寻回，占比约4%。尽管所有人都希望归零，但在现实世界中，4%已属低位。

核心真相是：这88起案件几乎全是离家出走的青少年，他们最终都已返家或被寻回。该州并未发生大规模绑架案，未发布安珀警报是因为所有案件都不符合启动标准（即确认遭绑架且面临迫切危险，同时掌握足够线索协助搜救）。媒体保持沉默则是因为根本无异常可报——这只是弗吉尼亚州再普通不过的一周。

至于冰淇淋车的传说？你我的猜测价值相当。但这个恐怖故事确实满足了人们的叙事需求。失去孩子的恐惧如此强烈，以至于人们需要虚构政府默许的拐卖阴谋来宣泄情绪。事实上，真正失踪的离家少年面临的危险远比午夜冰淇淋车更平凡却更真实：无家可归、暴力侵害、性剥削。

1980年代的"陌生人危险"恐慌
弗吉尼亚州88名儿童失踪事件在美国绝非首例（甚至不是第50起）儿童失踪恐慌。美国史上影响最深远的一次发生在1980年代初。1979年伊坦·帕兹失踪案与1981年亚当·沃尔什谋杀案相继发生后数年间，无论是否确有其事，全民都深陷儿童被暴力狂魔掳走的恐惧中。这场原始恐慌催生了牛奶盒寻人启事、《榆树街噩梦》系列电影，更直接促使国会于1984年通过《失踪儿童援助法案》并成立NCMEC中心。

当时的数据与现今惊人相似——95%失踪儿童属于离家出走，绝大多数绑架者与受害者存在亲属关系。 misinformation同样猖獗：当时盛传美国每年有150万儿童失踪，实际数字仅约30万。

与1980年代不同的是，本次恐慌并非由媒体主导传播。前互联网时代是正规新闻媒体在散布错误信息，而非TikTok上的普通用户，本应更具专业性的媒体难辞其咎。至于普通网友，由于缺乏信息甄别能力，任何超出认知的事件都可能被解读为阴谋论。

这一切意味着什么？
儿童失踪恐慌是社会集体潜意识恐惧的投射，而非现实世界的真实映照。1980年代，这种恐慌源于对"钥匙儿童"的忧虑、社区凝聚力的瓦解，以及传统的恐同症和种族主义（当时典型叙事模式是白人男童遭性犯罪者绑架）。如今，则体现为对体制的不信任，以及社交媒体对耸动叙事的推波助澜。

孩子们离家出走的原因始终如一：家庭缺乏安全感或经济困境——绝非被杀手冰淇淋车诱拐。正如往常一样，真正的危险与罪恶往往平淡无奇，永远难以成为爆款话题。

英文来源：

Last week, alarming reports began circulating on social media alleging a spike in children going missing in Virginia. Videos and posts claimed dozens of children had disappeared in the commonwealth over only a few days, and the posts and videos reporting it quickly racked up tens of millions of views on everything from Instagram to X to Threads.
On Aug. 12, TikToker @tkay7411 reported that 50 children had gone missing in Virginia. By Aug. 13, the number had risen to 80 children missing. The next day, the number spiked to over 100 children. And a culprit began to emerge: “late night ice cream trucks.”
Many online amateur journalists pointed to the lack of media coverage and the fact that no Amber Alerts had been issued as evidence that the abductions had the tacit approval of authorities. And when those authorities held a press conference to tamp down the rumors, the response online was generally "that's exactly what they would say if they were trying to cover something up."
Let’s dig into this mass hysteria in progress and separate the facts from the fiction.
How many children in Virginia have gone missing in the last week?
This is not one of those conspiracy theories that was invented whole cloth. According to the Center for Missing and Exploited Children, 88 children really were reported missing in Virginia between Aug. 3 and Aug. 9. Virginia has the highest number of missing children listed on the CEMEC’s website. It’s also true that no Amber Alerts were issued in Virginia during that time and no major media reported on the missing kids either.
But, as usual, the truth is boring and offers no midnight ice cream trucks. Eighty-eight children going missing in a week is actually better than Virginia’s average of 98 missing children per week, but that number is still extremely misleading. According to Virginia’s state police, Virginia reports more children missing than other states. Virginia forwards every missing child case to the National Center for Missing and Exploited Kids (NCMEC) website within a couple hours of the reports being received.
There’s also the meaning of the word “missing.” When someone says "missing children," people tend to jump to “a child stolen by a stranger in a van,” but the 93% of missing children are teenagers who run away from home. And almost all of them return are found quickly. According to Child Find America, 99% of runaways return home. So when a teenager doesn't come home on Saturday night and a worried parent calls the cops, it's reported to the NCMEC before they have a chance to stumble in at 6am.
Of the 7% of missing children who are actually abducted, 78% are taken by non-custodial parents. Of the remaining, 21% are abducted by other relatives, and 27% by acquaintances. Overall, less than 1% of missing child cases are due to abductions by strangers. The total number of stranger abductions, according to the FBI, is about 350 children per year for the whole nation of 340 million of so folks. It's not zero, but it's pretty close.
In Virginia, a state of 8.8 million people, 3,274 children have been reported missing since January 25. Of these, 141 (as of Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025) are still missing, or approximately 4%. Again, everyone would like the number to be 0%, but in the real world, 4% is close.
Bottom line: Almost all of the 88 cases in Virginia were teenagers who were reported missing and then either came home or were found. There was no mass abduction of children in the state. No Amber Alerts were issued because none of the cases met the criteria for an Amber Alert. (That is, a child has been abducted, is in imminent danger, and there is enough descriptive information about the child, the abductor, or the vehicle to aid in the child's safe recovery.) And there were no reports in the media because there was literally nothing to report—it was a normal week in Virginia.
As for the ice cream trucks, your guess is as good as mine, but it does make for a scary story, and telling each other scary stories is the real point. The idea of losing a child is so scary, people have to invent fictional scenarios about government-approved trafficking rings to cope with it. Meanwhile, the runaways who actually go missing face more mundane dangers than whoever is supposed to be behind the midnight ice cream trucks. But they’re real dangers like homelessness, violence, and sexual exploitation.
The great stranger danger panic of the 1980s
The “88 missing children in Virginia” isn’t the first (nor the 50th) panic over missing children in the US. The biggest, most consequential missing-child hysteria in U.S. history was in the early 1980s. Kicked off by the 1979 abduction of Etan Patz and the 1981 murder of Adam Walsh, there were a few years where everyone was very aware of kids being snatched by violent psychos, whether it actually happened or not. The original “stranger danger” hysteria gave birth to such disparate cultural and political expressions as milk carton kids, the Nightmare on Elm Street movies, and the Center for Missing and Exploited Children itself—founded in 1984 by the The Missing Children's Assistance Act.
The statistic were roughly the same back in the 1980s—95% of missing children were runaways; almost all abductors were related to the abductees—and so was the misinformation. It was widely reported that 1.5 million children disappeared in the United States every year, when the actual number was closer to 300.
This modern child-abduction panic, though, is not being spread by the media. Back in the pre-Internet days, it was the actual news media spreading misinformation instead of random goofs on TikTok, and the media should have known better. TikTok goofs can be forgiven because anything is a conspiracy theory if you don’t understand how anything works.
What does it all mean?
Missing-children panics are mirrors of the fears of our collective unconscious, not a reflection of anything happening in the real world. In the 1980s, it was anxieties over latchkey children, a crumbling sense of community, and good old-fashioned homophobia and racism (the "model" back then was a young white boy abducted by a sex-crazed molester). Today, it’s distrust of institutions and a social media ecosystem that rewards the most sensational version of any story. Instead of being lured by killer ice cream trucks, kids who run away for the same reasons they always have: Because their homes aren’t safe or their families are struggling to stay afloat. As always, the real danger and evil is so ordinary, it almost never goes viral.