内容来源：https://www.theverge.com/column/896949/regulator-david-sacks-iran-polymarket

内容总结：

科技政策核心人物对伊战警告遭无视，特朗普政府内部裂痕显现

在伊朗紧张局势持续升级的背景下，特朗普政府内部的科技政策核心人物、亿万富翁大卫·萨克斯（David Sacks）近日公开发出警告，呼吁总统寻求“退出途径”，以避免灾难性后果，但其意见似乎未获回应，凸显了特朗普决策圈内的孤立倾向与政策分歧。

作为特朗普政府在人工智能和加密货币领域的“核心智囊”，萨克斯在上周五的播客节目中阐述了局势升级的严峻前景：伊朗可能袭击邻国能源设施、摧毁关乎上亿人饮水的海水淡化厂，甚至引发更广泛的冲突。他明确建议寻求与伊朗达成停火或谈判解决方案。

然而，这一警告并未被采纳。特朗普近日不仅表示考虑向伊朗派遣地面部队、批评北约盟友，甚至提及可能入侵古巴。他同时否认萨克斯曾就此事与其沟通。接近白宫的消息人士对萨克斯能否影响总统决策持悲观态度。

分析指出，萨克斯的遭遇反映了特朗普当前决策圈的封闭性。不仅反战的“MAGA”孤立主义者感到被背叛，连关注市场稳定的行业巨头也难以左右其决策。特朗普转而倚重那些曾反对他、但如今力主对伊朗“政权更迭”的新保守主义势力。

科技行业可能因此承受长期风险。与基于意识形态支持特朗普的普通选民不同，科技巨头与其结盟有深厚的经济利益考量，依赖私人关系缓和其情绪以换取政策便利。但他们可能低估了特朗普行事的一个关键特质：面对对手时，他倾向于以加倍反击来维护尊严，常不计后果。此次，他的对手是一个拥有导弹、并已宣布对美“圣战”的宗教神权国家。在此情况下，试图以理性经济逻辑影响其决策的“科技精英”恐难有作为。

其他动态：

• 尽管监管机构发布了重要指引，澄清多数数字资产不属于证券，但关键的《清晰法案》仍需国会通过才能实现永久性监管明确，目前进展不明。
• 预测市场平台Polymarket宣布将开设一家名为“战情室”的酒吧，主打实时监控新闻与市场动态，具体选址未公布。

中文翻译：

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戴维·萨克斯的伊朗危机警告惨遭无视
附记：Polymarket竟要开设"局势监控"主题运动酒吧

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令人惊讶的是，在战争期间——尤其是一场与伊朗的草率战争正导致能源市场瘫痪、动摇美国与中东及欧洲关系、并令特朗普总统铁杆MAGA联盟成员离心离德之际——人工智能竟未成为政治优先议题。（就在昨日，曾获特朗普背书的国会候选人、选举结果质疑者乔·肯特宣布辞去国家反恐中心主任职务，以抗议伊朗战争。）但这场战争对科技与人工智能产业——乃至整个工业界——的冲击如此严峻，以致亿万富翁、特朗普政府科技政策智囊戴维·萨克斯竟采取了政治冒险行动：公开建议特朗普寻找途径退出伊朗战争。

上周五在其播客《全面投入》中，萨克斯团队基于近期局势推演出数个令人警醒的现实情景：伊朗暗示可能袭击邻国油气设施、摧毁维系上亿人口用水需求的海水淡化厂（萨克斯称这将引发"人道主义危机"使中东无法居住）、并对以色列持续轰炸直至其屈服或动用核武器。民主党很可能赢得中期选举。而更糟糕的是，第三次世界大战可能爆发。"此刻正是审视现状、寻求退路的关键时机，"他对共同主持人说道，"若局势升级毫无益处，就必须考虑如何降级。我认为降级需要与伊朗达成停火协议或某种谈判解决方案。"

萨克斯的任何谏言似乎都成了耳旁风。除了美军持续打击伊朗石油基础设施外，过去几天特朗普宣称可能向伊朗派遣地面部队，指责犹豫支援的北约国家作出"愚蠢"决定，甚至随口提及考虑下一步入侵古巴。特朗普本周还向记者表示萨克斯未曾与他讨论战争。无论真假，这已是特朗普贬低批评者的惯用托辞。白宫内部消息人士——尤其是熟悉特朗普行事风格者——对萨克斯能否说服总统持悲观态度。

厌恶萨克斯者或许会指出，这位亿万富翁对特朗普的影响力已触顶。但事实上，特朗普所有前盟友——尤其非其雇员者——皆面临同样困境。MAGA阵营的反战孤立主义者已遭彻底背叛。关注市场的工业巨头只能听凭特朗普的心血来潮。更讽刺的是，特朗普竟转而接纳昔日鄙夷他的新保守主义者，而这些人如今正是右翼中鼓吹颠覆伊朗政权的急先锋。（若想了解其政府下属如何纵容特朗普，笔者上周亲赴五角大楼的实地观察可作参考。）

在特朗普的寡头阶层中，科技从业者可能承受最持久的负面影响。与因意识形态支持特朗普的MAGA基础群体不同，科技巨头维系与总统联盟的核心动机是经济利益。他们当前的诸多优势依赖于直接人脉与迎合其自尊的能力——过去一年这确实带来了红利：反垄断调查终止、贸易漏洞开启、行政命令签署等等。（否则那些宴会捐款意义何在？）他们或许曾以为伊朗局势会像委内瑞拉那样，能通过夺取石油资源获利，因而选择静观其变。

但他们忽略了特朗普自1970年代与罗伊·科恩交往时就显露的关键特质：他憎恶被对手羞辱，且总倾向于加倍反击以摧垮对方意志，毫不顾及后果或长期损害。这在美国多表现为法律挑战与诉讼，但偶尔会演变为暴力事件（参见1月6日国会山事件与明尼苏达ICE抗议）。此次他的对手是一个暴力宗教神权国家——该政权在哈梅内伊死后宣布对美国发起军事圣战，且拥有导弹。那些设计哔哔声程序的科技精英几乎无法改变特朗普的意志——只要右翼仍有政治势力煽风点火——即便萨克斯自以为在网络安全空间向友好受众发声，也无法保证特朗普会对他的异议保持宽容。

加密货币动态依旧
遗憾的是，今年区块链大会因伊朗局势未能全程关注，但会上仍传出重大进展：美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）与证券交易委员会（SEC）联合发布关键指引，明确多数数字资产不属于证券范畴，厘清了特定加密货币的监管归属。尽管这是该关键领域迄今最全面的文件，监管机构仍警告需国会立法使变更永久生效，而CFTC目前已超负荷运转。换言之：《明确性法案》仍需通过。目前进展似乎很顺利？对吧？

华盛顿最火爆的酒吧竟是……
又一家区块链主题酒吧！Polymarket突然宣布开设"局势监控室"，标榜为"全球首家专注监控局势的酒吧"。据X平台发布的渲染图，这家被形容为"专为局势监控打造的运动酒吧"将配备全套监控设施：X平台直播、体育赛事和彭博终端。（Polymarket尚未透露酒吧具体位置。）

现在进入休闲时段
近日居家进行春季大扫除时，我发现一夸脱尺寸的自封袋，里面装着攒了一年多打算投入Coinstar兑换机的零钱。但懒惰如我，从TMZ学到的真理是：花钱买故事有时真能奏效。因此，我将把这袋零钱赠予任何能提供真实、可验证、非AI生成的影像资料者——内容需涉及山姆·奥特曼与剧作家杰里米·O·哈里斯在非公开的《名利场》奥斯卡派对上，据传因OpenAI与五角大楼合同问题引发的争执。（我假设《监管者》读者皆是好莱坞一线明星。）

请注意：我不会支付等值现金。领取条件是您必须亲自取走这袋钱（包括所有哥斯达黎加货币），且所有25美分硬币归我所有。若真有人兑现此提议，我必须征得尼莱·帕特尔同意破例违反道德准则一次——因为这本质上属于利益交换，尽管对提供者而言是笔糟糕透顶的交易。

下周再见。

英文来源：

Hello and welcome to Regulator, a newsletter for Verge subscribers about the politics of technology and the technology of politics — now landing in your inbox on Wednesdays! If someone has forwarded this email to you, and you’re not a Verge subscriber yet, you should sign up right here, and not just because it would be really, really cool if you do that. We can apparently see how many non-subscribers have opened this email, and why should Palantir get all the “spying on people” fun?
David Sacks’ big Iran warning gets big time ignored
Plus: Polymarket is opening a sports bar for “situation monitoring.”
Plus: Polymarket is opening a sports bar for “situation monitoring.”
Do you have cool events to highlight, tips to toss over, and secrets to spill? Send everything to tina.nguyen+tips@theverge.com. Or, if you’re truly tech-pilled, send me a message on LinkedIn.
Surprisingly, artificial intelligence does not take the highest political priority during a war — much less an ill-conceived war with Iran that’s paralyzed the energy markets, destabilized America’s relationships with the Middle East and Europe, and alienated members of President Donald Trump’s diehard MAGA coalition. (Just yesterday, Joe Kent, election denier and onetime Trump-endorsed congressional candidate, announced that he was stepping down as the director of the National Counterterrorism Center in protest of the Iran war.) But the effect it’ll have on the tech and AI industry — and industry in general — is so dire that David Sacks, billionaire and the AI and crypto czar shaping the Trump administration’s tech policies, did something politically risky: He publicly suggested that Donald Trump find some way to get out of the Iran war.
Last Friday on his podcast All In, Sacks and his crew laid out several alarmingly realistic scenarios based on recent developments: Iran indicated it was willing to attack oil and gas depots in neighboring countries, destroy desalination plants crucial for supplying water to over 100 million people (which Sacks described as a “humanitarian crisis” that would render the Middle East uninhabitable), and bombard Israel until it either relented or decided to use a nuclear weapon. The Democrats would probably win the midterms. But also, and arguably worse, World War III was possible. “This would be a really good time to take stock of where we are and try, I think, to seek an off-ramp,” he told his co-hosts. “And look, if escalation doesn’t lead anywhere good, then you have to think about, well, how do you de-escalate? And de-escalation, I think, involves reaching some sort of ceasefire agreement or some sort of negotiated settlement with Iran.”
Whatever advice Sacks may have tried to offer has fallen on deaf ears. On top of the US military’s continued assault on Iranian oil infrastructure, over the past few days, Trump said he was open to putting US troops on the ground in Iran, said that NATO countries hesitant to support him were making a “foolish” decision, and just because, added that he was thinking of invading Cuba next. Trump also told reporters this week that Sacks had not spoken to him about the war, either. Whether that’s true or not, Trump often defaults to this explanation when trying to diminish a critic. And the sources I speak to around the White House — especially the ones familiar with Trump’s MO — are pessimistic that Sacks will have any shot at getting the president to listen to him.
A David Sacks hater may note that the billionaire has hit the boundaries of his perceived influence on Trump. At the same time, every single one of Trump’s former allies — especially the ones who don’t work for him — have hit that limit, too. The MAGA anti-war isolationists have been completely betrayed. The titans of industry who care about the markets are at the mercy of Trump’s whims. Heck, Trump has turned around and embraced the neoconservatives who used to despise him, but are now the only people on the right clamoring for regime change in Iran. (If you want to get a sense of how his administration underlings are enabling Trump, I was literally at the Pentagon last week for a vibe check.)
Out of the Trump oligarch classes, the technologists may suffer the longest term effects. Unlike the MAGA base, who’d supported Trump for intangible ideological reasons, Big Tech’s got a deeply financial incentive to stay allied with the president. So much of their current advantages rely on their direct relationships and ability to assuage his ego, which has certainly paid dividends for them over the past year: antitrust investigations dropped, trade loopholes opened, executive orders signed, and so on. (What do you think the ballroom donations were for?) And it’s possible that they believed that the Iran situation would be similar to Venezuela, wherein they’d reap the benefits of seizing Iran’s oil supply, and decided not to intervene.
But there’s a critical characteristic they overlooked, one that dates back to Trump’s relationship with Roy Cohn in the ’70s: Trump does not like to be humiliated by his foes, and Trump is always inclined to strike back twice as hard in order to crush their spirits, with little care for consequences or long-term damage. It mostly manifests via legal challenges and lawsuits in America, but has occasionally gone in a violent direction (see: January 6th and the ICE protests in Minnesota). In this case, he is trying to one-up a violent religious theocracy, which declared a military jihad against the United States in the wake of Khamenei’s death, and also possesses missiles. The rich nerds who make the beep-boops have very little chance of changing Trump’s mind — especially so long as there’s a political contingent on the right egging him on — and even if Sacks believed he was talking to a friendly audience in an online safe space, there’s no guarantee that Trump will be happy that he voiced dissent at all.
Oh, right, crypto is still happening, too.
Unfortunately, I couldn’t catch a lot of the Blockchain Conference this year (see: Iran) but it seems like some major developments came out of it, including the CFTC and the SEC dropping a major guidance that most digital assets are not securities, clarifying the way that certain cryptocurrency is regulated and whose rules apply. But though it’s the most comprehensive document released around this crucial issue, they also warned that it still needs Congress to pass laws that would make those changes permanent, and the CFTC is pretty busy as is. In other words: The Clarity Act still needs to be passed, guys. And that seems to be going great. Right?
DC’s hottest bar is…
.. another blockchain-based bar! This time, Polymarket announced the surprise opening of The Situation Room, “the world’s first bar dedicated to monitoring the situation.” According to renderings posted on X, the bar, described as a “sports bar just for situation monitoring,” will have everything one needs to monitor the situation: live feeds on X, sports games, and Bloomberg terminals. (Polymarket did not immediately comment on where said bar would be located.)
And now, Recess.
I’ve been doing some spring cleaning at home and recently found a quart-sized Ziploc bag that’s got a handful of spare change that I’ve been meaning to drop off at a Coinstar for over a year. But I’m lazy, and if there’s anything I’ve learned from TMZ, it’s that paying money for stories works (sometimes). So I will give this bag of loose change to anyone who can send authentic, verified, non-AI generated footage of this reported fight between Sam Altman and playwright Jeremy O. Harris at the exclusive, off-the-record Vanity Fair Oscar Party, allegedly over OpenAI’s contract with the Pentagon. (I presume the audience of Regulator is composed of Hollywood A-listers.)
And, no, I’m not going to send you the cash equivalent of the bag’s value. The condition for the payout is that you have to take this bag off of my hands, including all of the Costa Rican currency. AND I’m keeping all the quarters. And in the extraordinarily unlikely event that someone follows through on this offer, I have to get permission from Nilay Patel to break the ethics policy this one time, because this is technically a quid pro quo, albeit an extremely awful quid pro quo for whomever sends it.
See you next week.