内容来源：https://www.geekwire.com/2026/microsofts-historic-plunge-why-the-company-lost-357-billion-in-value-despite-strong-results/

内容总结：

微软财报日股价暴跌10%：AI高投入遭遇市场“证明时刻”

尽管交出了一份营收与利润双双超预期的季度成绩单，科技巨头微软却在财报发布次日遭遇了历史性的单日市值蒸发。当地时间1月28日（周三）盘后公布的2026财年第二季度财报显示，公司营收增长17%至813亿美元，调整后每股收益4.14美元，均高于市场预期。然而，资本市场对此反应剧烈，次日股价盘中一度暴跌12%，最终收跌10%，市值单日缩水3570亿美元，创下公司史上最大单日美元价值损失。

此次暴跌被市场视为微软发展史上的又一个“黑色时刻”，其单日跌幅位列公司上市以来第七。回顾历史，类似级别的单日重挫仅出现在1987年“黑色星期一”股灾、2000年反垄断裁决、2013年Surface RT巨额减记以及2020年新冠疫情引发的市场崩盘等重大危机时期。

财报亮点难掩市场深层忧虑

表面来看，微软本季度业绩堪称强劲：运营利润率高达47.1%，云业务收入首次突破500亿美元。首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉在电话会议上强调，公司早期构建的AI业务规模“已超过一些耗时数十年打造的核心业务”。

然而，多个隐藏在财报细节中的信号触发了投资者的担忧：

1. 增长预期落差：尽管Azure云平台以固定汇率计算增长38%，略高于公司自身指引，但未能达到市场私下预期的39.4%，这微小的差距足以动摇信心。
2. 资本开支激增：当季资本支出飙升至375亿美元，同比暴增66%，凸显了微软为竞逐AI领域，在数据中心建设和芯片采购上与亚马逊、谷歌等对手展开军备竞赛所承担的巨额风险。
3. AI产品渗透率待提升：集成于Office的AI助手Copilot虽已拥有1500万付费用户，但相对于微软365总计4.5亿的付费席位，渗透率仅略高于3%，商业化速度未达部分投资者预期。
4. 业务前景承压：公司对下一季度Windows和设备业务的营收指引较分析师预期低逾10亿美元，由Windows 10生命周期结束所驱动的PC升级潮似乎正在失去动力。
5. 关键客户依赖风险：最令市场不安的数据或许是，在微软6250亿美元的“剩余履约义务”（即已签约未确认收入）中，高达45%（约2810亿美元）与OpenAI绑定。这意味着公司未来收入的近半壁江山系于一家仍在持续烧钱、探索可持续商业模式的公司，其最终能否转化为来自广大企业客户的需求而非仅局限于AI公司内部，存在不确定性。

市场分歧：“证明时刻”还是买入良机？

面对暴跌，市场分析观点出现明显分歧。瑞银分析师表达了普遍存在的疑虑，指出本季度微软365商业收入增长16%至245亿美元以上，但经客户核查，这一增长主要并非由Copilot驱动。报告直言：“我们认为微软需要‘证明’这些是好的投资。”

另一方面，部分机构仍持乐观态度。晨星公司维持600美元的公允价值估计，认为财报“符合我们的长期论点”，该股“仍是我们的首选之一”。William Blair分析师则以“亮点颇多”为题，指出AI与云服务需求持续超越供给，并观察到拥有超过3.5万个Copilot席位的大型客户数量同比增长了两倍。

Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯维持“跑赢大盘”评级，但将目标价下调至575美元。他指出长期投资与短期投资者耐心之间存在摩擦：“市场希望看到更少的资本支出和更快的云/AI货币化，但开局恰恰相反。”他将2026年视为微软的“转折年”，并称此次抛售是一个买入机会。

资深华尔街分析师里克·舍伦德在CNBC节目中评论称，市场上周似乎“情绪不佳”。他指出，虽然ChatGPT等消费级AI工具吸引了眼球，但真正买单的是企业客户。未来的真正驱动力将是“智能体AI”，即软件智能体与企业系统及彼此交互，在此过程中消耗巨大的计算资源。他认为，企业AI市场“实际上才刚刚起步”。

此次财报日的剧烈波动表明，在AI领域进行前所未有的巨额投资后，微软已不再能轻易获得市场的“信任票”。公司正面临一个关键的“证明时刻”：必须向投资者清晰地展示，这些天文数字般的投入能够转化为广泛、可持续的企业级需求与盈利，而不仅仅是为少数AI先锋者提供燃料。市场的耐心正在经受考验。

中文翻译：

1987年10月"黑色星期一"股灾，道指暴跌超22%；2000年4月反垄断裁决将微软定性为垄断企业；2013年7月Surface RT平板电脑项目减记9亿美元；2020年3月疫情引发全球市场断崖式下跌——这些微软史上最惨烈的单日暴跌纪录，如今又要添上新的一笔：2026财年第二季度（截至今年1月28日）业绩超出预期。

财报发布次日，微软股价盘中重挫12%，最终收跌10%报433.50美元，市值单日蒸发3570亿美元。这不仅是微软史上最大单日市值跌幅，也是自1986年上市以来第七大百分比跌幅。上次财报引发如此剧烈抛售还要追溯到13年前的Surface RT危机。周五股价基本持平，意味着巨额亏损将延续至新交易周。

单看财报数据本季表现强劲：营收增长17%至813亿美元，调整后每股收益4.14美元超越3.91美元的市场预期，运营利润率达47.1%，微软云业务营收首次突破500亿美元。"虽然刚起步，我们的AI业务规模已超越某些耗时数十年打造的核心业务。"CEO萨提亚·纳德拉在电话会议上表示。

数据背后的隐忧

市场究竟在担忧什么？多重因素正在发酵。

以固定汇率计，Azure云平台增长38%略超公司指引，但39.4%的华尔街"心照不宣预期"落空仍引发震荡。当季资本支出飙升至375亿美元（同比激增66%），凸显微软为竞逐AI赛道与亚马逊、谷歌竞相建设数据中心、抢购芯片所承担的风险。

嵌入Office的AI助手Microsoft 365 Copilot虽已收获1500万付费用户，但相较于4.5亿的Microsoft 365总付费席位，渗透率仅略超3%。更令市场不安的是下季度展望：Windows与设备业务营收预期较分析师预估低逾10亿美元，Windows 10停服引发的PC升级潮正在退去。

但最触动投资者神经的或许是这个数字：微软6250亿美元未履行合同金额中，45%与OpenAI绑定。这类合同代表已签约但未交付的未来收入，而报告显示约2810亿美元订单集中于这家仍在烧钱探索商业模式的公司。核心问题在于：微软的商业客户能否最终消化这些投资，而非仅依赖OpenAI等AI公司？

财报发布前，微软商业业务CEO Judson Althoff曾列举AI解决实际问题的案例：Epic月均生成1600万份患者病历摘要，Land O'Lakes将800页作物指南转化为即时农事建议，梅赛德斯-奔驰借AI代理将工厂故障诊断从数天压缩至分钟级。

"证明时刻"来临

但瑞银分析师指出市场普遍疑虑：虽然Microsoft 365商业营收增长16%至245亿美元，"但据我们调研，这并非Copilot驱动"。他们在报告中写道："微软需要'证明'这些投资物有所值。"

也有机构持乐观态度。晨星维持600美元公允价值预估，称"业绩符合长期判断"，收盘430美元的股价"仍是首选标的"。William Blair分析师Jason Ader以《亮点纷呈》为题指出AI与云服务需求持续超越供给，并观察到Copilot席位超3.5万的企业客户数同比增长两倍。

Wedbush分析师Dan Ives保持"跑赢大盘"评级，但将目标价调降至575美元。他坦言长期投资与短期投资者耐心存在摩擦："市场希望看到更少资本支出和更快云/AI变现，现状却背道而驰。"他将2026年视为微软"转折之年"，称此次抛售实为买入良机。

资深华尔街分析师Rick Sherlund（自微软上市即追踪该股）在CNBC节目中指出，市场上周似乎"情绪恶劣"。他认为ChatGPT等消费级AI工具虽受关注，但企业级市场才是真正的支付方。驱动未来的将是代理型AI——软件代理与企业系统及彼此交互，消耗海量算力资源。"企业AI市场其实才刚刚起步。"

从市场情绪判断，微软已不再享有"疑点利益"。

英文来源：

The “Black Monday” market crash in October 1987, when the Dow plunged more than 22%. The antitrust ruling against Microsoft in April 2000, when a federal judge declared the company a monopolist. The Surface RT writedown in July 2013, when its $900 million bet on tablets went bad. The COVID crash of March 2020, when the world shut down and the market fell off a cliff.
Now add to the list of Microsoft’s worst single-day stock plunges: the company’s better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, last Wednesday, Jan. 28.
Microsoft’s shares fell as much as 12% in trading the day after the earnings report, before closing at $433.50, down 10%, erasing $357 billion from its market value.
It was the largest single-day dollar loss in Microsoft’s history and the seventh-largest percentage decline since the company went public in 1986. The last time Microsoft’s shares fell this much after an earnings report was that Surface RT debacle 13 years ago. The stock barely moved on Friday, leaving the massive losses intact going into the upcoming week.
On the surface, the quarter itself was strong. Revenue rose 17% to $81.3 billion. Adjusted earnings hit $4.14 per share, above the $3.91 consensus. Operating margin was 47.1%. Microsoft Cloud revenue was more than $50 billion for the first time.
“Even in these early innings, we have built an AI business that is larger than some of our biggest franchises that took decades to build,” Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on the earnings call.
The concerns behind the numbers
So what happened? Several factors are playing out behind the scenes.
Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform grew 38% in constant currency, ahead of its own forecast. But Wall Street’s “whisper number” was 39.4%, and that miss was enough to shake the market.
Capital spending soared to $37.5 billion in the quarter, up 66% from a year ago, illustrating the size of the risk Microsoft is taking. The company is racing against Amazon, Google, and others to build data centers and buy chips to compete in AI.
Microsoft 365 Copilot, the AI assistant that the company has built into its Office apps, has 15 million paid users. That sounds like a lot until you consider that Microsoft 365 has 450 million paid seats. Copilot has reached a little more than 3% of them.
Microsoft’s outlook for the upcoming quarter didn’t help. Its forecast for the Windows and Devices business was more than $1 billion below what analysts expected, as the wave of PC upgrades sparked by Windows 10’s end of life runs its course and loses steam.
But the number that seemed to concern investors most was this: 45% of Microsoft’s $625 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO) is tied to OpenAI.
RPO represents contracts that customers have signed but Microsoft has not yet fulfilled. It is a measure of future revenue already locked in. Microsoft’s report showed that roughly $281 billion of that backlog is committed to a single customer, a company that is still burning cash and searching for a sustainable business model.
The question is whether that investment will ultimately pay off in demand from Microsoft’s business customers, not just from OpenAI and other AI companies.
In a post before earnings, Judson Althoff, CEO of Microsoft’s commercial business, pointed to customers using AI to solve real problems: Epic generating 16 million patient record summaries a month, Land O’Lakes building an assistant that turns an 800-page crop guide into instant recommendations for farmers, Mercedes-Benz using AI agents to cut factory issue diagnosis from days to minutes.
A ‘prove it’ moment
But analysts at UBS reflected the broader market skepticism, as noted by CNBC. Although Microsoft 365 commercial revenue was up 16% in the quarter, to more than $24.5 billion, that’s not because of Copilot, they said, citing their checks with customers.
“We think Microsoft needs to ‘prove’ that these are good investments,” they wrote.
Others were more optimistic. Morningstar maintained its $600 fair value estimate for Microsoft, calling results “consistent with our long-term thesis.” The stock, which closed Friday at $430, “remains one of our top picks,” analyst Dan Romanoff wrote.
William Blair analyst Jason Ader titled report “A Lot to Like” and noted that demand for AI and cloud services continues to outpace supply. The firm also pointed to accelerating enterprise adoption, observing that the number of customers with more than 35,000 Copilot seats tripled year-over-year.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives maintained an “Outperform” rating but lowered his price target to $575. He cited friction between long-term investments and short-term investor patience.
“The Street wanted to see less cap-ex spending and faster cloud/AI monetization,” Ives wrote, “and coming out of the gates it’s the opposite.” He described 2026 as an “inflection year” for the company and called the selloff a buying opportunity.
Rick Sherlund has watched Microsoft go through these plunges before. The longtime Wall Street analyst, who started covering the company when it went public, observed in an appearance on CNBC that the market seemed to be in “a foul mood” last week.
Consumer AI tools like ChatGPT get the attention, but businesses actually pay. The real driver, Sherlund said, will be agentic AI, where software agents interact with enterprise systems and with each other, burning enormous computing cycles in the process.
In terms of demand, he said, the enterprise AI market is “really just getting started.”
Judging from the market’s mood, Microsoft is no longer getting the benefit of the doubt.